Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Sea-level rise animation

There are many animation of sea-level rise on UTube - this one is quite good and short, so have a look. Then, ask yourself the question, in light of what you already know about coastal morphodynamics, how realistic are these animations, also referred to as bath tub models? Coastal environments have the ability to respond to sea-level rise. Especially environments such as salt marshes, tidal flats, estuaries and coral reefs are depositional environments that build up at rates comparable to rates of sea-level rise (mm's per year). This means that many of the low-lying areas you see being flooded in such animations will actually keep their head above the water. Similarly, sandy and gravel barriers might retreat due to sea-level rise, but as long as they remain more or less intact, they will keep protecting the low-lying hinterland. And what about the Dutch (near the end of the animation)? Most of the country is already below sea level and certainly not underwater. So, coastal protection will also keep the sea at bay. Are these animations therefore useful? Well, they are a great way to scare people and thus provide a very useful argument for people like me to apply for research funding and justify our professional existence. But to be serious, they do present the worse case scenario, and that's how they should be considered. They are not realistic predictions.

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